Giuliani, bred by one of our Australasian agent’s syndicates on our advice, ran a very promising 4th in a Group 2 race. Others whose pedigrees were recommended either prior to conception as part of a broodmare analysis, or when analysed as a yearling prior to purchase include:-
[7 April 2014]
Congratulations to owner/breeder Stuart Ramsey on Believe Yourself’s fine Golden Slipper run at Rosehill on Saturday.
The filly is the product of a highly recommended mating between Sebring and Stuart’s mare Private, rating 114*****.
Criterion’s Rosehill Guineas win adds to the list of Group 1 winners for pedigrees that were identified as compatible before sale as a yearling or as part of broodmare analysis.
In this case, Criterion’s dam, Mica’s Pride, was analysed when she was entered in a broodmare sale in 2009, and was carrying the future Rosehill Guineas winner. We identified the Sebring mating as being highly compatible. Criterion has been successful from the time he started racing, and was a Group 2-winning 2yo and had previously been Group 1 placed. The Rosehill Guineas takes his CV up a notch by adding a Group 1 victory.
Vilanova won the Group 2 Autumn Classic at Caulfield at the end of February. This highly-compatible mating was identified as part of a broodmare analysis of her dam, Valpolicella, by her New Zealand co-breeders Haunui Farm and Garry Cranny.
Mecir recently won the Group 3 Newmarket Handicap at Newcastle. Her dam, Magistra Delecta, was one of Ramsey Pastoral’s broodmare analyses, and Mecir’s sire, Lonhro, was identified by us as one of the best matings for the mare.
London Lolly’s dam, Lovely Jubly, was a great racemare. She has now produced a very talented 2yo by Charge Forward in London Lolly, which was another highly-recommended mating identified as part of a broodmare analysis by Woodbury Pty Ltd, owner of Lovely Jubly.
London Lolly has now had four starts and at her third start, she won the Listed St Albans Stakes at Moonee Valley before venturing to Morphettville to win the Group 3 Breeders Classic in impressive fashion.
The following are some recent racing highlights for Brain Pedigree Analysis.
Over the years we have predicted successful crosses in advance, rather than identifying successful crosses in hindsight.
Since Sebring went to stud, virtually every Encosta De Lago mare that we analysed featured Sebring high up in the ratings. An obvious factor to a pedigree enthusiast is the beautifully-balanced 4×4 linebreeding to Rolls, a mare prominent in the pedigree of both Sebring’s damsire, Flying Spur, and in Encosta De Lago’s pedigree.
While the first few runners bred on this cross produced some winners, there was nothing to get too excited about, however the last two weekends have highlighted that we were on the right track with our recommendations.
a) On Saturday, 8 March, at Flemington, Clifton Red debuted with a win in the Group 3 TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
b) A week later in the Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes at Randwick, Believe Yourself was successful, making it two wins from two starts.Now this particular Sebring/Encosta De Lago cross reads as six runners for four winners including two Group winners, which by racing standards is an incredible 33.3% stakeswinning strike rate.
Believe Yourself was bred by our long time client Ramsey Pastoral to a highly-recommended mating.
When Fighting Sun impressively won the Listed Canonbury Stakes at Rosehill in mid-February, he was instantly promoted to Golden Slipper favouritism and looked to be one of the best 2yos of his generation. Unfortunately he pulled up with a serious injury and has been retired, and will stand at stud at Eliza Park.
Fighting Sun was also bred by Ramsey Pastoral to a highly-recommended mating.
Apart from breeding the two high-class 2yos mentioned above (as well as numerous non-black-type winners) recently, Stuart Ramsey of Ramsey Pastoral also bred current Hong Kong star, Able Friend, to a highly-recommended mating. Able Friend has finished second in Group 1 races at his past two starts over distances beyond his preferred 1600m, but is shaping as the best miler in Hong Kong.
Previously Able Friend had won four of his five starts in Hong Kong including the Group 1 Hong Kong Classic Mile.
Named after Brain client John Camilleri’s daughter, the Peter Moody-trained A Time For Julia keeps winning. Last weekend she won the Group 3 Roy Higgins Tribute Quality at Randwick. Prior to that she finished second in the Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes, which followed on from a win in the Group 3 Bellmaine Stakes at Caulfield. A Time For Julia was bred by John Camilleri of Fairway Thoroughbreds after we analysed his mare, Procrastinate.
Group 1 winners this season
There have been two Group 1 winners this season which are the products of either recommended matings or yearlings recommended at yearling sale time.
Our Australasian agent Louis Mihalyka’s Rebel Dane is included in this category as he broke through for his maiden Group 1 victory in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield last September.
He raced Rebel Dane’s great-grandmother, Georgian Gold, and when she retired to stud, she was one of his first Brain pedigree analyses. He is now the third generation bred on a Brain-recommended mating and the result is an absolute high-class currently being set for a first-up tilt at the $2.5 million TJ Smith Stakes on 12 April.
Prior to his Group 1 win, he also won the Group 3 Show County Quality at Warwick Farm,
Samaready, who earlier in her career won the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes, added another Group 1 to her resume when she won the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley last September. She was highly recommended when her pedigree was analysed as a yearling.
In the 2013/14 season, other Group 1-placed horses or stakeswinning horses that were produced from recommended matings, or which were recommended when analysed as yearlings, include Shamexpress, Bound For Earth, Royal Descent, Kuroshio, Criterion, Bull Point, Precedence, Smokin’ Joey, Kiss A Rose, Diamond Oasis, Bounding, The Solitaire, Thy, Full Of Spirit, Star Rolling, Epingle, Kalahaar, Savour The Moment, Waterford and Crumpet O’Reilly.
[Image above: Frankel’s first win in The Sussex Stakes at Goodwood in 2011]
It will be fascinating to see how Coolmore’s Frankel foal out of the mare Chrysanthemum turns out, given that it’s pedigree is so inbred in the third generation. I cannot recall even ordinary handicap winners, let alone stakes winners, bred in this way.
Likewise, a second foal by Frankel out of the mare Song, is also very inbred close-up and, to me, in particularly poor position. This is another Frankel product I believe, on statistical appraisal of pedigree structure, has little chance of being successful on the racecourse.
As a general comment, I note that a disproportionate number of Frankel’s first crop matings are very inbred. This does not appear to augur well for the success of this crop.
It appears quite extraordinary that Juddmonte seem to have allowed breeders’ commercialism rather than professional judgment to dictate what mares have been sent to Frankel so far.
More than likely, the long term effect will be to downgrade the value, not only of the mares themselves, but the value of the great racehorse Frankel as a stallion.